My latest plan is to create a map of a football pitch, divide it into zones, and determine which zones are the best places to shoot from. Here's an example:
I'm sure I'll change these as I get more data, but this gives us something to play with. Here are all of the shots from every game Fulham has played, or at least all shots taken inside the 18 yard box:
Zone | Total Shots | Off Target | Hit Post | On Target | Blocked | Goal | On Target % | Success % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 57 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0.368 | 0.053 |
| 9 | 44 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 1 | 0.227 | 0.023 |
| 8 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.412 | 0.059 |
| 7 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.158 | 0.000 |
| 6 | 52 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 0.308 | 0.096 |
| 5 | 44 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 0.295 | 0.091 |
| 4 | 80 | 36 | 2 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 0.425 | 0.150 |
| 3 | 81 | 38 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 0.309 | 0.123 |
| 2 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0.450 | 0.150 |
| 1 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0.400 | 0.267 |
Even in this small sample, you can see that the most success comes from straight-on shots, and the closer the better. My initial reason for doing this was to determine what defences do to make life easier for their goalkeeper. Zones 8 and 10 have respectable on target rates, but the goalscoring rates are relatively low. If a high percentage of Mark Schwarzer's saves come from shots in these zones, the outfield defence deserves some of the credit. To find out for sure, though, I need to add up the totals for the entire league, and then compare those to our opponents' shots.
There's a lot more knowledge that we can get out of this, though. Isn't it mostly true that, the closer you get to the opponent's goal, the easier it is to give the ball away? Therefore, is it better to take a lower percentage shot and not risk the turnover, than to go for a shot from inside the 6 yard box and probably lose the ball before you even get an attempt on goal? How about the likelihood of getting fouled in various spots, and possibly winning a penalty? Do more fouls occur closer to the goal, or doesn't it matter? These should be considered, and may be very useful in drawing out tactics. We have the technology, so why not?
Yes! You're breaking the
Yes! You're breaking the final frontier. This is the path to true knowledge. DUe to differences in tactics, fluidity of the game etc, it is always going to be difficult to create baseball-like statistics, with one number encapsulating a players total offensive production (like RCAA or OPS+ or EqA) or even total worth like WinShares etc, but we can figure out where an attacker likes to shoot from and we can keep him from shooting there. And more importantly, we can have this information, not just the people at ProZone. This is brilliant brilliant stuff, and I honor you for it.
WithAPlum
Thanks! Did you happen to
Thanks! Did you happen to see that Michael Lewis article that Rich linked to several weeks ago? Shane Battier mentioned sprinting to the corner before an inbound to defend the corner 3s, since that spot is supposedly the most efficient spot to shoot from. Its not the easiest shot, but that may be exactly what makes it so efficient - defenders tend to ignore it. That's more or less what led me to start this project. There seems to be a lot of interesting work being done with basketball, and a lot of it translates pretty well. I hope it does, at least!
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