From the Other Side - Premier League Shot Quality Against

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Yesterday, we looked at where the clubs were taking their shots from. Today, we have the same numbers from a defensive point of view. Specifically, this tells us how good a job defences are doing at preventing quality scoring chances. My favorite part about all of this is that it shows us who is making life easy (and difficult) for their goalkeeper.

ClubShot Quality Againstsort iconGoals AgainstMGP by GKMGP by OF
Man Utd0.860204.48937.632
West Ham0.924344.93922.182
Stoke City0.93147-0.57515.696
Hull City0.99851-7.68515.806
Aston Villa1.019422.14718.974
West Brom1.03757-3.7567.877
Man City1.073403.13417.987

Once again, we're not counting own goals here. I've included the adjusted Marginal Goals Prevented totals for goalkeepers and outfield players. This was done by neutralising each team's save percentage, which is used to calculate MGP. Fulham are toward the top here, as we would have expected. Our defence takes some of the credit from Mark Schwarzer, but he is still the best keeper in the league. Blackburn makes Paul Robinson look considerably less horrible, but he's still near the bottom. Side note: I have some tentative plans to re-work the goalkeeper-outfield distribution for MGP, as the goalkeeper influence "feels" high. But the best-to-worst order should remain the same. Newcastle's keepers, Chris Kirkland, and Heurelho Gomes were the other big beneficiaries of this adjustment. Petr Čech, Thomas Sørensen, Edwin van der Sar, and Manuel Almunia weren't so lucky, with their contributions dropping by 3 or more goals each.

and *then* you maybe need to

and *then* you maybe need to separate the marginal goals into actual defensive excellence, and 'attack as defence', e.g. spending 45 minutes camped in the opponents' half. I wonder if this is where time of possession stats come in?

Great stuff though, Colin, you're going from the merely very interesting to the bloody important quite quickly!

Yeah, I've been debating in

Yeah, I've been debating in my head how to handle possession. It defnitely needs to be there - even figuring something simple like "total successful passes" into the equation would probably work. But does that mean that Danny Murphy completing 50 passes (and ignoring his other contributions) is doing more defensively than John Paintsil's winning 5 tackles and 10 good clearances? I could see it going both ways. Maybe we need a "marginal possession" number to use? Or even adjusting team MGP by time with possession?

Anyway, I'm just brainstorming aloud. I'll try see what works.

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Not too bad---credit goes out

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